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A useful offer discussion separates how often sales finished below asking from the size of the discount among those that did. It also specifies which asking price is being used. This update compares both recorded and original asking references while holding the recorded-asking price bands consistent between quarters.
Price-band results
| Property type / recorded-asking band | Q3 valid sales | Q2 below recorded | Q3 below recorded | Q3 below original | Median below-ask discount / subset n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single detached / $500,000–under $750,000 | 433 | 68.6% | 79.4% | 81.8% | 2.5% / 344 |
| Single detached / $750,000–under $1,000,000 | 488 | 68.0% | 76.8% | 78.5% | 2.2% / 375 |
| Single detached / $1 million and above | 304 | 66.4% | 76.6% | 77.3% | 4.3% / 233 |
| Freehold townhouse / Under $500,000 | 80 | 63.6% | 63.8% | 66.2% | 1.4% / 51 |
| Freehold townhouse / $500,000–under $750,000 | 576 | 71.9% | 77.3% | 78.6% | 2.0% / 445 |
| Freehold townhouse / $750,000–under $1,000,000 | 31 | 66.1% | 80.6% | 83.9% | Not reported / 25 |
| Apartment condominium / Under $500,000 | 288 | 89.7% | 87.5% | 88.5% | 3.4% / 252 |
| Apartment condominium / $500,000–under $750,000 | 84 | 78.7% | 81.0% | 82.1% | 2.8% / 68 |
| Townhouse condominium / Under $500,000 | 260 | 82.0% | 86.9% | 88.8% | 2.7% / 226 |
Rows require at least 30 valid positive sale, recorded-asking and original-asking values in Q3. Each displayed conditional median additionally requires at least 30 below-recorded-asking episodes. A displayed count beside “Not reported” identifies a subset below that median threshold.
Freehold townhouses asking $750,000–under $1 million illustrate the distinction: 25 of 31 episodes were below recorded asking, so the frequency can be shown, but the conditional discount median is suppressed.
Original asking can tell a different story
A sale can match a revised asking price yet remain below the original asking price. The two percentage columns therefore describe separate comparisons, not interchangeable measures of negotiation.
Price bands are assigned using recorded ListPrice. Assigning them using sale price would let a discounted transaction move into a lower band because of the very outcome being studied. Recorded asking is still selected by the seller, so this method does not turn it into an independent estimate of market value.
What changed in the detached segment?
Below-recorded-asking sales became more common in each displayed detached asking-price band. For the $1 million-and-above group, the share rose from 66.4% in Q2 to 76.6% in Q3. Its median discount among below-asking sales moved from 3.40% to 4.33%.
Those changes describe different groups of sold homes. They do not establish that buyers became better negotiators, that every seller accepted less, or that a particular high-priced home should receive a 4.33% discount.
How to use the evidence without turning it into an offer formula
Find the relevant property type and asking band, then compare the actual home with recent close substitutes. Consider whether its asking price is supported by those comparables and what current competing listings offer. These aggregate figures cannot replace that work.
For sellers, the table separates the frequency of below-asking outcomes from their conditional size. A high frequency alone does not prove an advertised price reduction is needed. Full price histories, offer counts and seller circumstances are not available in this study.
The earlier annual article used “final asking” as shorthand. This refresh uses the more precise “recorded asking,” since the API snapshot does not independently establish the complete advertised-price history. Prior annual figures must remain labelled with their earlier period and source date.
Source and methodology
Data source: PropTx. Analysis and commentary: Matt Richling, New Purveyors Lab. Source retrieval began October 6, 2026 at 23:53 UTC, or 7:53 p.m. Toronto.
Q2 means April 1–June 30, 2026; Q3 means July 1–September 30, 2026. Months use PurchaseContractDate, the recorded accepted-agreement date, rather than the closing date. Quarterly statistics pool the individual episodes; they do not average monthly medians. Q2 contains 3,550 selected episodes from 3,921 broad records; Q3 contains 2,627 selected episodes from 2,905 broad records. The four categories are residential freehold detached, residential freehold attached/row/townhouse, condominium apartment and condominium townhouse. Other types are excluded.
The region is CountyOrParish=Ottawa in the feed. Area names reproduce its City labels; they may include several neighbourhoods and are not independently verified municipal or neighbourhood boundaries. Records are Sold and For Sale. Pagination, unique keys, date/status/geography membership and raw response hashes were checked. Relistings are not linked into unique homes; withholding and subsequent revisions can affect the observed sample.
Sale prices use ClosePrice. Recorded asking uses ListPrice; original asking uses OriginalListPrice. ListPrice is not independently verified as the last advertised price, and asking is not a valuation. Days on market uses the provider field, whose detailed business rules are not confirmed. Medians and quartiles use valid observations without outlier trimming; quartiles use linear interpolation. Prices must be positive and DOM nonnegative. At least 30 valid observations are required for a displayed median or percentage denominator; a conditional median requires 30 records in its own subset. Percentages and changes use unrounded calculations.
These descriptive sold-episode comparisons are not seasonally adjusted. They do not measure current availability, offer counts, the likelihood of selling, or changes in the value of the same home. Location, size, condition and changing sales mix can affect results. No full Q3 2025 comparison is available from this extraction, which begins in September 2025. Read the research standards.
Earlier edition: Read the prior study and its original methods.
Discuss these findings
For help applying these findings to a property or a move, contact Matt Richling. Include the area, property type and timing that matter to you.
Cite this edition
Richling, Matt. “How did Ottawa sale discounts differ by asking-price band in Q3?” New Purveyors Lab. Q3 2026 · July–September. Updated October 7, 2026. Permanent edition.