Permanent link to this October 16, 2026 outlook edition
The most useful detail in CREA’s new forecast is easy to miss: a larger projected growth rate next year accompanies a lower projected number of sales. That matters when deciding whether a headline about recovery should change an Ottawa purchase or sale plan.
Today’s releases provide two different kinds of evidence. The September report measures transactions already recorded. The quarterly forecast describes a possible path through the end of 2027. Neither establishes what a specific Ottawa property will sell for.
The forecast changed more on sales than on prices
The following table compares the July forecast, preserved in CREA’s July 30 article, with its October 16 update. These are national annual forecasts, not Ottawa results.
| National measure | July forecast | October forecast | Revision to forecast level |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 sales | 463,336 | 444,530 | −18,806 / −4.1% |
| 2027 sales | 480,567 | 464,235 | −16,332 / −3.4% |
| 2026 average sale price | $686,710 | $681,681 | −$5,029 / −0.7% |
| 2027 average sale price | $694,164 | $689,909 | −$4,255 / −0.6% |
Sources: CREA’s July forecast article and October quarterly forecast. Revision percentages are the Lab’s calculations: October forecast divided by July forecast, minus one, rounded to one decimal.
CREA’s projected sales growth for 2027 rose from 3.7% to 4.4%, but the starting point for 2026 fell. The revised 2027 total is therefore still lower than July’s forecast. A stronger percentage rebound and a weaker expected level can coexist.
CREA attributes the downgrade to higher fixed mortgage rates and uncertainty about future borrowing costs. Its recovery scenario assumes slow positive economic growth, renewed population growth and greater clarity about interest rates. Those are assumptions supporting a forecast. They are not confirmed future outcomes. October forecast.
For a buyer, that distinction discourages a rushed purchase based solely on an expected rebound. For a seller, it discourages choosing an asking price by adding a national forecast percentage to an earlier valuation. The decision still needs evidence about the homes competing for the same buyers.
September provides a separate check on current conditions
CREA reported national September sales down 2.3% from August in its monthly series and actual sales down 7.7% from September 2025. National inventory stood at 4.9 months. These describe the Canadian market across property types; they do not establish equal negotiating conditions in every city or building. CREA’s September monthly release, published October 16.
Ottawa’s own report provides a more relevant starting point. OREB recorded 3,336 sales during July–September, down 8.2% from the same period last year. Its September inventory measures also differed by property type:
| OREB property group | September months of inventory |
|---|---|
| Single-family | 4.4 |
| Townhouse | 4.0 |
| Apartment | 7.3 |
These figures come from OREB’s October 5 September release. Months of inventory relates available supply to sales activity. It is not a prediction of how long an individual listing will take to sell. An apartment buyer and a townhouse buyer were starting from different broad supply conditions, even within the same city.
Keep the local comparison close to the actual decision
The Lab’s September sold sample reinforces why home type matters. It recorded a $588,000 median for freehold townhouses across 225 listing episodes and $380,000 for apartment condominiums across 109 episodes. Those figures describe different products and buyers; the gap is not a measure of the value of upgrading from one particular property to another. The quarterly market study provides the wider context.
For someone buying and selling, make two comparisons. First, examine recent comparable sales and active competition for the home being sold. Then do the same for the intended purchase. A softer selling market can coincide with more options on the buying side, but the two sides may move differently. A national average cannot tell you the change in that household’s purchase gap.
For a condo buyer, include the monthly fee, verified inclusions, parking and the building’s documents. A lower purchase price does not describe the whole ownership budget. The condo purchase-budget study shows how similar purchase prices can accompany different fees and property characteristics.
What would change the interpretation?
The next useful local evidence is whether suitable listings continue to accumulate, sell or leave the market, and whether comparable completed sales support asking prices. Track those outcomes within the relevant area and home type before treating a broad forecast as a reason to change strategy.
A clear plan can accommodate several outcomes: identify the homes that would work, the budget that remains comfortable and the timing constraints that actually matter. Bring those details to a conversation with Matt so the research can be connected to a real set of choices.
Scope and sources
CREA’s forecasts and national September release were checked October 16. OREB’s observed September results were published October 5. The Lab’s separate PropTx sample was retrieved October 6: CountyOrParish Ottawa, For Sale/Sold records, accepted-agreement dates in September and the stated property categories. Its listing episodes are not joined into unique homes; medians are unadjusted for sales mix. The Lab, OREB and CREA series have different scopes and are not combined into one dataset. No Ottawa price forecast is calculated here.
Discuss these findings
For help applying these findings to a property or a move, contact Matt Richling. Include the area, property type and timing that matter to you.
Cite this edition
Richling, Matt. “CREA’s October forecast: what the lower sales outlook means for Ottawa” New Purveyors Lab. October 16, 2026 outlook. Updated October 16, 2026. Permanent edition.